The Climate Crisis is Global, but These 6 Places Face the Most Severe Consequences

Climate change is expected to affect every country in the world, but its impact will not be felt equally across all regions and some will be worse hit than others because of a range of different threats.

Developing countries, places with widespread poverty, and countries with ineffective governments sometimes face the gravest risks from the changing climate, and are usually poorly equipped to find ways to prepare for and prevent environmental threats.

Measuring the future impact of climate change is very challenging, because scientists’ climate change projections cannot be completely exact and because there are many different factors that come into play such as the risk of extreme weather events and rising temperatures. There are other non-climatic factors that also determine how severely a city or country will be impacted by climate change. Niall Smith, who analyzes regions’ climate change vulnerability for the global risk consulting firm Maplecroft, tells TIME that it’s also necessary to weigh in what’s happening politically and socially in a region to figure out if the country can prepare.

“The places with the least level of economic development are certainly in line to feel the impacts with the greatest degree, partially just due to their geographic fate — or their location — but more so based on the socio-economic and governance factors,” says Smith.

Many developing countries are also uniquely vulnerable, says Kelly Levin of the World Resources Institute, “their livelihoods are dependent on natural resources. And if those natural resources are affected by climate change, their ability to feed their families and make a living is significantly impacted.”

To get a sense of the challenges different regions are facing, TIME spoke to experts about six countries and cities will be be particularly affected by climate change.

Lagos, Nigeria

PIUS UTOMI EKPEI—AFP/Getty ImagesA girl carries smoked fish at Makoko shanty town in Lagos on Aug. 30, 2012.

Lagos is at “extreme” risk on Maplecroft’s Climate Change Vulnerability Index. This is especially concerning because its population is expanding rapidly, and it is considered to be a major economic engine for the region.

The governor boasted that Lagos had reached a GDP of $136 billion in 2017, which is about a third of the entire country’s GDP. The city is also a major transportation hub, with multiple ports and a major international airport and is a regional hub for high tech industry. Lagos has “transformed” over the last 18 years, Lamido Sanusi, a former central bank governor, told the Financial Times last year. “In terms of roads, in terms of infrastructure, in terms of a general investment environment, in terms of security, the government has given people a greater opportunity to thrive.”

Lagos is also at a disadvantage because it’s considered to be one of the fastest growing cities in the world, which will put a “strain on infrastructure and resources,” according to Smith. Its population is projected to nearly double over the next 15 years, growing from its current population of 13,463,420 to 23,418,770.

In the future, Smith warns that Lagos residents will also experience more hot days and droughts.

Climate change could threaten the city’s economy. The city is especially vulnerable because it’s located on the Gulf of Guinea, says Levin. As sea levels rise, it’s likely to affect cause coastal erosion and contaminate potable water. This could harm local agriculture in the countryside and damage the country’s fishing industry, which could be dire in a country with “tremendous” poverty, Levin says.

“You could see more and more people moving in from the countryside because of loss of economic opportunity into a city like Lagos, which could make the whole situation more challenging,” Levin says.

If Lagos struggles, it could seriously reduce economic opportunity in the region.

Haiti

AFP Contributor—AFP/Getty ImagesA man walks in street that was flooded in Malfeti, in the city of Fort Liberte, in the city of Fort Liverte, in the north east of Haiti, on Sept. 8, 2017, during the passage of Hurricane Irma.

Climate change can be a “threat multiplier,” says Christina Chan, the director of the World Resources Institute’s climate resilience practice. This is especially true for Haiti. The island nation is located in the “Atlantic Hurricane Basin,” which means that it is vulnerable to hurricanes. In comparison to other projections on climate change, scientists are The Climate Crisis is Global, but These 6 Places Face the Most Severe Consequences